Small Business Confidence Slips, But Resilience, Strategy, and the Holidays Keep Optimism High

Small business confidence ticked down slightly nationwide in the fourth quarter, according to the latest MetLife and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index. The Q4 2025 Index score landed at 68.4, down from last quarter’s 72.0. The dip reflects small declines in cash flow comfort and expectations around revenue and investment as inflation continues to be the nation’s top challenge.

Even so, there’s good news: today’s confidence still sits several points higher than early 2025, signaling that small businesses continue to demonstrate grit, adaptability, and no small amount of tenacity.

The Holiday Season: Make-or-Break Moment

If there was ever a year for holiday hustle, this is it. Retailers, and many others, are counting on strong seasonal spending to close out the year:

• 79% of small businesses say the holiday season is important to their profits (up from 70% last year).

• 91% of retail businesses say the season is critical for their bottom line.

• 58% expect to raise prices due to inflation.

52% anticipate lower holiday revenue.

Seasonal strategies are surging:

• 29% plan to hire seasonal workers (+7 points)

• 56% will offer holiday discounts (+9 points)

• 48% will extend hours (+9 points)

• 65% plan to give to charitable causes, a sharp rise from 54% last year.

Core Challenges Persist Beyond the Holidays

Even with the seasonal bump, everyday business pressures remain:

• Inflation dominates: 45% cite it as their biggest challenge.

• Workforce challenges climb:

  • Employee retention concerns grew to 17% (up from 12%).

  • Difficulty attracting talent jumped to 14% (more than double last year).

• Cash flow comfort dips: 74% feel comfortable, but only 24% feel very comfortable, a decline from 31% in Q3.

WY It Matters: For Wyoming, these national trends mirror what many of our local employers have been signaling all year: inflation pressures, workforce shortages, and tightening cash flow are real challenges. But, they’re also driving innovation and resilience across every sector, from energy and manufacturing to retail and hospitality. As talent concerns climb nationally, Wyoming businesses are doubling down on workforce pipelines, education partnerships, and competitive benefit strategies to stay ahead.

At the same time, the holiday season is just as critical here as it is across the country, especially for small retailers and Main Street businesses that rely heavily on fourth-quarter consumer spending. Supporting local this season keeps dollars in our communities, protects local jobs, and strengthens the pro-business, pro-growth foundation that keeps Wyoming’s economy moving forward.